Luciano Spalletti’s national team will return to the field this evening for the second day of the Nations League group stage. Placed in Group 2 of League A, Italy made the best possible start by winning 3-1 at the Parc des Princes against France and now has five games ahead of them in the next 69 days. The path in the group will also determine the path in this competition: in the event of arriving in first or second place, the National team will play the quarter-finals in March to try to access the finals in June. In the event of third place, a play-off will take place in March against a second-placed team from League B with the aim of remaining in League A. Fourth place, however, would sanction immediate relegation to League B.
But how can the Nations League impact World Cup qualifiers?
The draw for the qualifying groups for the 2026 World Cup will be held in December. For the first time, 48 teams will take part in a World Cup, 16 of which will come from Europe. 12 groups will be drawn: the winners will get a pass to the competition that will be held in two years in Mexico, the USA and Canada, while the 12 runners-up, along with the four teams with the best results in the Nations League, will participate in the play-offs in March 2026. On that occasion, these sixteen teams will be divided into groups of four and only the winners of the semi-finals and final of each group will gain access to the World Cup.
Should Italy qualify for the Nations League finals, they would be certain of taking part in the play-offs even if they did not finish in the top two places in their World Cup qualifying group. But even a good run, even without reaching the finals in June, would reasonably grant the Azzurri the chance to play the play-offs that will be held in March 2026.
League A Group 2 standings after matchday one
Italy 3 points
Belgium 3
Israel 0
France 0
But it doesn’t end there. If Italy finishes their Nations League group in the top two places, they will be certain of being seeded in the December draw. Eight of the 12 seeded teams for the draw will be the teams that finish in the top two places in the four Nations League League A groups. The other four, however, will be determined by the FIFA Ranking: those with the highest ranking will be placed in the first group (excluding, obviously, those who have already qualified).
Taking into account only the European national teams, Italy is currently in seventh place in the FIFA Ranking. It could still manage to find itself in the first tier in December, but a bad run in the Nations League (especially negative results against Israel who is behind us in the Ranking) risks making Spalletti’s team slip behind national teams like Croatia, Germany and Switzerland who are currently behind us.